Short interest still high at 6% (maybe refinitiv didn’t update yet) which is surprising, shorts’ thesis still it’s over leveraged, and power isn’t going to work (which is kind of stupid imo)
Yea I noticed it’s been at 6% for a while. I think there are various short narratives out there but none that are substantially correct. Some still cling to the muddy waters report, not sure why.
Great article - how do you think about the catalyst path aside from execution for the market to value this combination of businesses properly given the complexity?
Also curious how you think about the sustainability of earnings/normalized earnings power as the current multiple on forecasted EBITDA growth screens as attractive? What would give you concern of over-earning?
This is a super interesting name I’m currently sharpening the pencil on.
Something I may try to answer, and would love your take on is whether SCI is transacting at market rates, or paying slight or even not slight premiums as FTAI quickly transitions to a BS light (er) operation
Interesting question. I couldn’t find anything that explicitly said whether they are acquiring at market or not. they are acquiring a few from FTAi’s own pool, but the majority are on the open market from other fleets and other airlines/lessors
If that mix is correct that’s a good sign. They are incentivized to pay a bit of a premium whether from the market or their own fleet to hasten their transition to BS light, which worries me. They’d say their GP commit mitigates that risk, but not nearly in full
Short interest still high at 6% (maybe refinitiv didn’t update yet) which is surprising, shorts’ thesis still it’s over leveraged, and power isn’t going to work (which is kind of stupid imo)
Yea I noticed it’s been at 6% for a while. I think there are various short narratives out there but none that are substantially correct. Some still cling to the muddy waters report, not sure why.
Only possible headwinds in my thesis is the current pushback on data centers cause delays to new mod-1 orders, otherwise see you at $400
Great article - how do you think about the catalyst path aside from execution for the market to value this combination of businesses properly given the complexity?
Also curious how you think about the sustainability of earnings/normalized earnings power as the current multiple on forecasted EBITDA growth screens as attractive? What would give you concern of over-earning?
This is a super interesting name I’m currently sharpening the pencil on.
Something I may try to answer, and would love your take on is whether SCI is transacting at market rates, or paying slight or even not slight premiums as FTAI quickly transitions to a BS light (er) operation
Interesting question. I couldn’t find anything that explicitly said whether they are acquiring at market or not. they are acquiring a few from FTAi’s own pool, but the majority are on the open market from other fleets and other airlines/lessors
If that mix is correct that’s a good sign. They are incentivized to pay a bit of a premium whether from the market or their own fleet to hasten their transition to BS light, which worries me. They’d say their GP commit mitigates that risk, but not nearly in full